Free Throw Woes

Let's go back to 2009 when Mark Fox was hired. In the spring, Fox embarked on his first ever Bulldog Club tour. At the Rome event on April 29, a young man asked a question. I don't recall exactly what the question was, but Fox answered the question with a question. The exchange went something like this.

Coach Fox: Do you know what a free throw is?
Young man: No sir, I do not.
Coach Fox: Neither do my players.

When I read about it the next day in the paper, the zinger was music to my ears . I'd been beside myself about Georgia's free throw shooting for years. When you compare Georgia's free throw shooting under Dennis Felton to Nevada's under Mark Fox, you can see why Fox would drop such a line.

	Georgia (Felton)				Nevada (Fox)
Year	FT	FTA	FT%	FT% Rank	FT	FTA	FT%	FT% Rank
2008-2009	355	556	0.638	308	583	781	0.746	25
2007-2008	430	633	0.679	203	493	690	0.714	97
2006-2007	378	567	0.667	246	481	636	0.756	11
2005-2006	355	545	0.651	283	490	682	0.718	80
2004-2005	360	568	0.634	294	556	786	0.707	106

Note: there are 345 Division I men's basketball teams. In Felton's final year, which was also coached by Pete Hermann after Felton was let go during the season, only 37 teams had a worse free throw shooting percentage than Georgia in all of Division I.

The difference between the two schools in the chart above is staggering. Nevada made a higher percentage of free throws, while at the same time shooting more, in all five seasons. And isn't even close! Fox's Nevada teams never shot less than 70% from the line, while Felton's teams over the same five year span never even sniffed 70%.

Ok, so now let's take a look at what Georgia has done since Fox arrived. It's pretty interesting.

	Georgia
Year	FT	FTA	FT%	FT% Rank	Trend
2015-2016*	297	436	0.681	230	Down
2014-2015	572	826	0.692	173	Up
2013-2014	642	941	0.682	235	Down
2012-2013	486	700	0.694	179	Up
2011-2012	364	530	0.687	194	Down
2010-2011	465	667	0.697	154	Down
2009-2010	460	641	0.718	81	Up

* Stats are through the first 18 games of the season

Georgia actually got off to a pretty good start in Fox's first season, increasing the FT% by .080. This kept up with the trend of a Mark Fox team never dipping below 70%. Since that inaugural season though, Georgia has yet to get back up over that 70% mark.

Another interesting thing to look at is the trend year over year. Georgia has yet to improve their free throw shooting percentage in back to back years under Fox.

Also, can you tell by the attempts when Charles Mann arrived at Georgia? (Hint: he attempts a whole lot of free throws)

So what does all of this mean? I've stated several times on Twitter that Georgia is losing games due to poor free throw shooting. Am I right? That's tough to figure out without looking at each free throw attempt. Increasing your free throw percentage will also increase your attempts, assuming you make the front end of a few more one and ones.

For the analysis below, I threw that out for simplicity. If we just increase the number of free throws made based on the existing attempts, could Georgia have won more games this season? The answer is yes.

Three of Georgia's losses were significant (Seton Hall, Florida, and Texas A&M), so I'm going to focus on the remaining four losses. The table below shows the Points For, Points Against, Free Throws Made, Free Throws Attempted, Free Throw %, and Adjusted Free Throw % (this is the FT% needed to win the game).

Opponent	Result	PF	PA	FT	FTA	FT %	Adj FT %
Chattanooga	L (OT)	90	92	28	45	0.622	0.689
Kansas State	L	66	68	17	25	0.680	0.800
Ole Miss	L	71	72	22	34	0.647	0.706
LSU	L	85	89	15	24	0.625	0.833

Immediately Chattanooga and Ole Miss jump out as games Georgia should have won. In fact, with only one more free throw made Georgia beats Chattanooga in regulation. It's also not unreasonable for Georgia to hit over 80% to beat both Kansas State and LSU.

I have no idea how this can be fixed, but I hope it is eventually. This isn't something that can be ignored any longer. Georgia's poor performance from the foul line is causing them to lose games.

All stats referenced are from Sports-Reference.com.