Let's go back to 2009 when Mark Fox was hired. In the spring, Fox embarked on his first ever Bulldog Club tour. At the Rome event on April 29, a young man asked a question. I don't recall exactly what the question was, but Fox answered the question with a question. The exchange went something like this.
Note: there are 345 Division I men's basketball teams. In Felton's final year, which was also coached by Pete Hermann after Felton was let go during the season, only 37 teams had a worse free throw shooting percentage than Georgia in all of Division I.
The difference between the two schools in the chart above is staggering. Nevada made a higher percentage of free throws, while at the same time shooting more, in all five seasons. And isn't even close! Fox's Nevada teams never shot less than 70% from the line, while Felton's teams over the same five year span never even sniffed 70%.
Ok, so now let's take a look at what Georgia has done since Fox arrived. It's pretty interesting.
* Stats are through the first 18 games of the season
Georgia actually got off to a pretty good start in Fox's first season, increasing the FT% by .080. This kept up with the trend of a Mark Fox team never dipping below 70%. Since that inaugural season though, Georgia has yet to get back up over that 70% mark.
Another interesting thing to look at is the trend year over year. Georgia has yet to improve their free throw shooting percentage in back to back years under Fox.
Also, can you tell by the attempts when Charles Mann arrived at Georgia? (Hint: he attempts a whole lot of free throws)
Coach Fox: Do you know what a free throw is?When I read about it the next day in the paper, the zinger was music to my ears . I'd been beside myself about Georgia's free throw shooting for years. When you compare Georgia's free throw shooting under Dennis Felton to Nevada's under Mark Fox, you can see why Fox would drop such a line.
Young man: No sir, I do not.
Coach Fox: Neither do my players.
Georgia (Felton) | Nevada (Fox) | |||||||
Year | FT | FTA | FT% | FT% Rank | FT | FTA | FT% | FT% Rank |
2008-2009 | 355 | 556 | 0.638 | 308 | 583 | 781 | 0.746 | 25 |
2007-2008 | 430 | 633 | 0.679 | 203 | 493 | 690 | 0.714 | 97 |
2006-2007 | 378 | 567 | 0.667 | 246 | 481 | 636 | 0.756 | 11 |
2005-2006 | 355 | 545 | 0.651 | 283 | 490 | 682 | 0.718 | 80 |
2004-2005 | 360 | 568 | 0.634 | 294 | 556 | 786 | 0.707 | 106 |
The difference between the two schools in the chart above is staggering. Nevada made a higher percentage of free throws, while at the same time shooting more, in all five seasons. And isn't even close! Fox's Nevada teams never shot less than 70% from the line, while Felton's teams over the same five year span never even sniffed 70%.
Ok, so now let's take a look at what Georgia has done since Fox arrived. It's pretty interesting.
Georgia | |||||
Year | FT | FTA | FT% | FT% Rank | Trend |
2015-2016* | 297 | 436 | 0.681 | 230 | Down |
2014-2015 | 572 | 826 | 0.692 | 173 | Up |
2013-2014 | 642 | 941 | 0.682 | 235 | Down |
2012-2013 | 486 | 700 | 0.694 | 179 | Up |
2011-2012 | 364 | 530 | 0.687 | 194 | Down |
2010-2011 | 465 | 667 | 0.697 | 154 | Down |
2009-2010 | 460 | 641 | 0.718 | 81 | Up |
Georgia actually got off to a pretty good start in Fox's first season, increasing the FT% by .080. This kept up with the trend of a Mark Fox team never dipping below 70%. Since that inaugural season though, Georgia has yet to get back up over that 70% mark.
Another interesting thing to look at is the trend year over year. Georgia has yet to improve their free throw shooting percentage in back to back years under Fox.
Also, can you tell by the attempts when Charles Mann arrived at Georgia? (Hint: he attempts a whole lot of free throws)
So what does all of this mean? I've stated several times on Twitter that Georgia is losing games due to poor free throw shooting. Am I right? That's tough to figure out without looking at each free throw attempt. Increasing your free throw percentage will also increase your attempts, assuming you make the front end of a few more one and ones.
For the analysis below, I threw that out for simplicity. If we just increase the number of free throws made based on the existing attempts, could Georgia have won more games this season? The answer is yes.
Three of Georgia's losses were significant (Seton Hall, Florida, and Texas A&M), so I'm going to focus on the remaining four losses. The table below shows the Points For, Points Against, Free Throws Made, Free Throws Attempted, Free Throw %, and Adjusted Free Throw % (this is the FT% needed to win the game).
Opponent | Result | PF | PA | FT | FTA | FT % | Adj FT % |
Chattanooga | L (OT) | 90 | 92 | 28 | 45 | 0.622 | 0.689 |
Kansas State | L | 66 | 68 | 17 | 25 | 0.680 | 0.800 |
Ole Miss | L | 71 | 72 | 22 | 34 | 0.647 | 0.706 |
LSU | L | 85 | 89 | 15 | 24 | 0.625 | 0.833 |
Immediately Chattanooga and Ole Miss jump out as games Georgia should have won. In fact, with only one more free throw made Georgia beats Chattanooga in regulation. It's also not unreasonable for Georgia to hit over 80% to beat both Kansas State and LSU.
I have no idea how this can be fixed, but I hope it is eventually. This isn't something that can be ignored any longer. Georgia's poor performance from the foul line is causing them to lose games.
All stats referenced are from Sports-Reference.com.